Based on Eurostat house price index data through Q4 2025, Italy’s housing market moved through three distinct phases over the past decade: a mild decline into 2019, a recovery from 2020, and a push to fresh highs in 2024 and 2025. The latest reading puts the national index at 118.10, above both the late-2010s trough and the earlier cycle levels seen around 2016.

Rather than a boom-bust pattern, the Italian series reads more like a slow reset followed by a steadier climb. For long-term buyers and policy-aware readers, the key message is that the major turning points matter more here than the quarter-to-quarter noise.

The late-2010s downturn was real, but relatively shallow

In the 2016-2019 stretch, Italy’s national HPI drifted lower rather than collapsing, which matters because shallow corrections often leave the market more sensitive to later cyclical improvements than to dramatic rebound stories. The index stood at 100.70 in Q3 2016, slipped to 100.00 in Q4 2016, and then fell below the 100 mark for most of the next three years.

By Q1 2017, the index had reached 99.10, with annual growth at -0.70% and quarterly change at -0.90%. The softness persisted through 2017 and 2018: the index printed 98.80 in Q4 2017, 98.60 in Q1 2018, 98.40 in Q3 2018, and 98.30 in Q4 2018. Annual readings stayed negative throughout that period, including -1.49% in Q3 2017, -1.20% in Q4 2017, -0.81% in Q3 2018, and -0.51% in Q4 2018.

The low point of the decade came in Q1 2019, when the index fell to 97.70 and annual growth was -0.91%. Even then, the pattern was not one of cascading declines. There were intermittent rebounds, such as a 1.43% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q2 2019 that lifted the index to 99.10, but the broader picture was a market searching for a floor rather than accelerating upward.

The turn arrived in 2020, but the path was uneven

In the 2020-2021 phase, the market shifted from stagnation to recovery, and that kind of inflection is often more important in national house-price series than any single high-growth quarter. Italy entered 2020 with the index at 99.40 in Q1 and annual growth at 1.74%, already a firmer reading than the late-2010s sequence.

The standout move came in Q2 2020, when the index jumped to 102.40. That quarter posted 3.33% annual growth and 3.02% quarterly growth, marking one of the strongest single-step advances in the series. The rebound did not run in a straight line: Q3 2020 saw the index ease back to 99.80 with a -2.54% quarterly move, before stabilising at 100.00 in Q4 2020.

From there, the recovery broadened. The index rose to 101.10 in Q1 2021, 102.80 in Q2 2021, 103.90 in Q3 2021, and 104.00 in Q4 2021. Annual growth strengthened to 4.11% in Q3 2021 and remained at 4.00% in Q4 2021. That sequence matters because once national HPI series regain and hold the 100 level after a multi-year soft patch, they often enter a more durable expansion phase than the earlier stop-start pattern suggests.

2022 brought the fastest growth of the decade, then momentum cooled

In the 2022-2023 period, Italy recorded its strongest annual growth rates of the decade before settling into a lower-growth plateau. The index rose from 105.70 in Q1 2022 to 108.10 in Q2 2022, with annual growth accelerating from 4.55% to 5.16%. That Q2 2022 reading was the strongest year-on-year gain in the full series.

After that, momentum softened. The index slipped to 106.90 in Q3 2022 and 106.80 in Q4 2022, while annual growth cooled to 2.89% and 2.69%. By Q1 2023, the index was unchanged at 106.80 on the quarter and annual growth had slowed to 1.04%.

Even so, the market did not unwind the earlier recovery. Instead, it stabilised at a higher level. The index moved up to 108.80 in Q2 2023, then held close to that mark at 108.70 in both Q3 and Q4 2023. Annual growth during those quarters ranged from 0.65% to 1.78%. For analysts, that reads less like reversal and more like consolidation after the fastest part of the upcycle.

2024 and 2025 pushed the index to fresh highs

In the 2024-2025 snapshot, Italy’s house price index broke decisively above its earlier plateau and set successive new highs. The index was 108.50 in Q1 2024, then climbed to 112.00 in Q2 2024 on a 3.23% quarterly increase. It continued to 112.80 in Q3 2024 and 113.50 in Q4 2024, with annual growth strengthening from 2.94% to 4.42% over those three quarters.

The advance continued in 2025. After a slight quarterly dip to 113.30 in Q1 2025, the index rose to 116.40 in Q2 2025, 117.00 in Q3 2025, and 118.10 in Q4 2025. Annual growth remained firm at 3.93%, 3.72%, and 4.05% across the final three quarters in the dataset.

This matters because mature housing upswings often become more convincing when they combine new index highs with repeated positive annual readings rather than relying on one exceptional quarter. Italy’s latest sequence fits that pattern: the market is not merely above its 2019 trough, but also clearly above the levels that prevailed around 2016, 2021, and 2023.

The 10-year pattern is best read as a reset followed by a steady repricing

Across the full 2016-2025 history, Italy’s HPI shows a market that spent several years edging down, then rebuilt momentum in stages before reaching a new cycle high. That is a useful framing for readers because long-run housing cycles are often defined less by dramatic crashes than by how long a market takes to move from softness to sustained expansion.

The key turning points are clear in the data:

At the end of the series, Q4 2025 stands as the highest index reading in the dataset at 118.10. For a 10-year view, that leaves Italy with a trajectory defined not by volatility, but by a long recovery arc that eventually turned into a clear break to new highs.

Explore further

Cities in Italy: Roma · Milano · Napoli · Torino

Related analysis:

• Apartments vs Houses in Italy: Prices, Rents and Yields in 2026
• Italy Apartment Prices and Yields by Room Count in 2026
• Most Affordable Italian Cities for Apartment Buyers in 2026

Browse: Highest rental yields · Most expensive · Most affordable on price · All rankings

Published: May 21, 2026