Based on Eurostat house price index data through Q4 2025, Germany’s housing cycle now reads in three clear phases: a long upswing into 2022, a sharp correction through 2023, and a modest recovery across 2024 and 2025. The latest index stands at 153.70, still below the 2022 high of 167.40 but above the trough reached during the downturn. For long-term buyers and policy-aware readers, the key story is not quarter-to-quarter noise but how clearly the market moved from acceleration to contraction and then into stabilization.

The long upswing ran from 2016 into an early-2022 peak

Based on the 2016-2025 Eurostat series, Germany spent most of the period in a sustained expansion phase before the cycle turned. That kind of extended climb is typical of housing markets when price momentum builds over several years rather than in a single burst.

The index was at 108.80 in Q3 2016 and rose steadily through the following years: 117.30 by Q4 2017, 124.60 by Q4 2018, and 132.70 by Q4 2019. The market then kept advancing through the pandemic period, reaching 144.30 in Q4 2020 and 162.50 in Q4 2021.

By Q1 2022, the index had climbed to 164.10, and it reached its high point of 167.40 in Q2 2022. Annual growth rates show how strong that final stretch was. Year-on-year growth ran at 8.37% in Q3 2016 and 8.45% in Q4 2016, then stayed mostly in the mid-single digits before accelerating again. It reached 11.45% in Q2 2021, 12.76% in Q3 2021, 12.61% in Q4 2021, and 12.17% in Q1 2022.

Quarterly growth also became notably stronger during that late upswing. After moving by 1.39% in Q1 2021, the index rose 3.76% in Q2 2021 and 4.22% in Q3 2021, before easing to 2.72% in Q4 2021 and 0.98% in Q1 2022. Even in Q2 2022, the market was still rising on the quarter, at 2.01%, before the reversal became visible.

The downturn was abrupt, with the sharpest quarterly drop in late 2022

Based on the post-peak data from Q2 2022 onward, Germany’s correction arrived quickly rather than gradually. Housing downturns often become most visible when quarterly changes flip negative before annual rates fully reflect the turn.

The first sign came in Q3 2022, when the index slipped to 166.30 and quarterly growth turned negative at -0.66%. The sharper break followed in Q4 2022, when the index fell to 158.50 and quarterly growth dropped to -4.69%, the steepest quarter-on-quarter fall in the series shown here.

Annual growth also moved decisively into negative territory. After still posting 5.12% in Q3 2022, the year-on-year rate fell to -2.46% in Q4 2022. The contraction then deepened through 2023: -6.34% in Q1, -9.44% in Q2, and -10.22% in Q3, before easing slightly to -7.63% in Q4.

The index itself continued to step down across that year, moving from 153.70 in Q1 2023 to 151.60 in Q2, 149.30 in Q3, and 146.40 in Q4. Quarterly changes stayed negative throughout: -3.03%, -1.37%, -1.52%, and -1.94% respectively. That pattern matters because it shows a broad correction phase rather than a single weak quarter.

The low point came in early 2024, followed by a gradual recovery

Based on the 2024 and 2025 readings, Germany’s market appears to have shifted from outright decline to slow rebuilding. In housing cycles, that usually looks less like a sharp rebound and more like a sequence of small positive quarterly prints.

The index reached 145.80 in Q1 2024, the lowest reading in the dataset after the 2022 peak. Even then, annual growth was still negative at -5.14%, and quarterly growth was slightly negative at -0.41%, showing that the market had not fully stabilized at the start of the year.

The turn became clearer from Q2 2024 onward. The index rose to 147.80 in Q2, 149.00 in Q3, and 149.20 in Q4. Quarterly growth was positive in each of those quarters at 1.37%, 0.81%, and 0.13%. Annual change also improved from -2.51% in Q2 to -0.20% in Q3, then returned to positive territory at 1.91% in Q4.

That recovery carried into 2025, though at a measured pace. The index moved to 150.90 in Q1, 152.40 in Q2, 153.60 in Q3, and 153.70 in Q4. Year-on-year growth held in a narrow range at 3.50%, 3.11%, 3.09%, and 3.02%, while quarterly growth slowed from 1.14% to 0.99%, then 0.79%, and finally 0.07%.

The latest position is above the trough but still below the prior high

In the Q4 2025 snapshot, Germany’s housing market sits in recovery territory but has not yet regained its earlier cycle top. For buyers and analysts, that makes the current phase easier to read as normalization than as a return to the rapid gains seen in 2021 and early 2022.

Two reference points define the current position in the series: the peak of 167.40 in Q2 2022 and the trough of 145.80 in Q1 2024. The latest reading is 153.70 in Q4 2025, after four consecutive positive year-on-year quarters and seven positive quarter-on-quarter quarters out of the last eight.

The shape of the cycle is visible in the sequence of annual growth rates. Germany moved from double-digit annual increases in 2021 and early 2022 to negative readings throughout every quarter of 2023 and the first three quarters of 2024, before returning to positive annual growth in Q4 2024 and maintaining that through 2025.

For readers tracking the full 10-year arc, the main takeaway is that the German market no longer looks like it did at the 2022 high, but it also no longer looks like it did at the 2023-early 2024 low. The most recent data points describe a market that has stopped falling, regained modest year-on-year growth, and settled into much slower quarterly movement than the surge phase that preceded the correction.

Key index readings across the cycle

Based on the Eurostat quarterly series through Q4 2025, the turning points are easier to compare side by side than in a long time series alone.

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Published: May 14, 2026